South Dakota Republicans Floundering in Polls

The Bialota Network | Opinion | Oct. 4, 2026

According to a Lake Research Partners Poll, Nikki Gronli (D) appears to be in striking distance of Marty Jackley (R) in the 2026 SD Congressional race (43% - 47%), and an Insight Research poll shows Brian Bengs (I) tied with Mike Rounds (R) in the Senate race (44%-44%).

South Dakota is a historical Republican stronghold, but even well-established household names are beginning to struggle. Why?

First, let's look at the Congressional race. After vacating the Congressional seat to run for Governor, Dusty Johnson slammed headfirst into the dirt, finishing third in a four-way race. South Dakota voters were either tired of Johnson's obvious liberal streak or sick of his relentless attacks on the other three patently more conservative candidates. Jackley entered the race in late 2025 and faced off against James Bialota. Scared of being exposed as the Democrat he is, Jackley refused to debate the staunchly more conservative Bialota or engage whatsoever in the race. AG Jackley and his supporters threw constant lawfare and lies at Bialota, leading to a Jackley primary win. Now, however, Jackley seems to be sinking in the polls against a Democrat.

Second, the Senate. Brian Bengs, a self-described Theodore Roosevelt Republican, is running on a truly independent platform, supporting Medicare and Social Security benefits (liberal, big-government programs) while promoting an end to big money in politics (a traditionally libertarian talking point). He's also taken quite a few of the conservative strategies and campaign platforms from James Bialota, and is gaining tremendous ground against Mike Rounds, the moderate Republican establishment candidate who defeated conservative Justin McNeal in the primary.

Why is this happening? Well, after the primary election, voters seem to have reassessed Jackley and Rounds. They're both uninspiring characters, with policy views similar to Dusty Johnson, leading Republican voters to wonder if they care enough to show up on election day. Independents, who make up 25% of SD voters, are generally disgruntled with Republicans and are likely inspired to vote Democrat or Independent. Nikki Gronli is certainly a more moderate, agriculture-focused Democrat, and Bengs is running on a (kind of) conservative platform, and both seem to offer a viable way for Republicans to cross the aisle, even if it's just to spite Jackley for his lies and Rounds for refusing to debate Bengs. This, accompanied by the recent endorsement of Terrence Davis (D) for Secretary of State by Monae Johnson (R, SD Sec. of State), could explain why voters are uninspired to vote for moderates like Jackley and Rounds, and find Nikki Gronli and Brian Bengs (who at least don't lie about what they believe) to be an acceptable outcomes.

Now, we're not advocating for people to vote either way. We are suggesting, however, that the Republican party wake up and realize that electing RINO moderates in the primary will eventually lead to South Dakota getting sick and tired and electing politicians from another party. Bialota and McNeal, the conservatives, almost certainly wouldn't be facing poor poll numbers like this.

Pictured at top: Marty Jackley (Top Left), Nikki Gronli (Top Right), Mike Rounds (Bottom Left), Brian Bengs (Bottom Right)